Societe Generale economists highlight that Iran‑related energy fallout is pressuring households and growth, with limited fiscal space for large support.

DBS Group economist Philip Wee highlights that EUR/USD fell 4% to 1.1415 in early March as Iran-related tensions boosted safe-haven Dollar demand. Markets price two ECB hikes in June and September, and unless the ECB pushes back, EUR/USD is expected to find support near 1.1390.

Silver prices (XAG/USD) fell on Monday, according to FXStreet data. Silver trades at $78.94 per troy ounce, down 2.07% from the $80.60 it cost on Friday.

Nomura economists expect the SNB to keep its policy rate at 0.00% on 19 March and for the foreseeable future.

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TradingKey - During the Asian trading session on March 16, the precious metals market experienced a significant pullback. Silver prices (XAGUSD) fell below the $80 mark, while gold prices (XAUUSD) als

Dow Jones futures gain 0.33% to trade near 46,750 during European hours ahead of the US regular market open on Monday. S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures rise 0.49% and 0.51% to trade around 6,670 and 24,520 at the time of writing.

HSBC argues that recent Middle East tensions and “safe haven” demand have lifted the Dollar, helped by short USD covering and tighter US financial conditions.

ING’s Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey report that Aluminium Bahrain has begun a phased shutdown equal to about 19% of its capacity due to Strait of Hormuz disruptions.

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A report by Bloomberg showed during European trade on Monday that a key port of Fujairah in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) was hit by a drone, the latest in a series of strikes threatening the country’s only export route outside the Strait of Hormuz.

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MUFG’s Senior Currency Analyst Lee Hardman highlights a bullish breakout in the US Dollar index above its 96.000–100.00 range, supported by surging Oil prices after the Strait of Hormuz was effectively closed.

The Japanese Yen (JPY) trades firmly against its major currency pairs, except the antipodeans, during the European trading session on Monday. The USD/JPY pair is down 0.26% to near 159.30 at the start of the busy central banks’ week.

Commerzbank’s Volkmar Baur highlights that the South African Rand has been one of the clear losers from the Iran conflict, hurt by weaker precious metals exports and higher imported energy costs.

Brown Brothers Harriman’s (BBH) Elias Haddad expects the Reserve Bank of Australia to deliver a second consecutive 25 bps hike to 4.10%, though it is described as a close call. Futures imply slightly better than even odds of a move.

Avalanche (AVAX) trades in the green above $10 at press time on Monday, building on the roughly 13% gains from last week. The Layer-1 blockchain token regains retail demand as the broader cryptocurrency market shows early signs of recovery, despite the escalating US-Iran war. 

Societe Generale economists note that EUR/GBP has slipped below its 200‑DMA and is testing the February low near 0.8610, which may offer interim support.

Gold price (XAU/USD) loses ground for the fourth successive session, hovering around $5,000 per troy ounce during the European hours on Monday.

DBS Group economist Philip Wee warns that USD/JPY is nearing the 160 level, raising intervention risks as Japan and South Korea step up verbal defence of their currencies. Tokyo is in closer contact with US authorities, and a surprise BOJ rate hike on March 19 cannot be ruled out.

Turkey Budget Balance: 24.37B (February) vs -214.54B

India Trade Deficit Government came in at $27.1B below forecasts ($28B) in February

On Monday, attention in Canada will turn to the release of February’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures.

ING’s Chris Turner notes that EUR/USD has found support near 1.1390/1.1400 after a sharp 3% decline, but elevated Oil prices and heavy net Euro longs still pose downside risks.

Standard Chartered’s Ethan Lester and Madhur Jha analyse how higher Oil prices can quickly lift global food inflation via fertiliser costs and trade bottlenecks. They note that food’s share in CPI baskets, import intensity and dietary patterns will shape country outcomes.

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Commerzbank’s Michael Pfister argues the Canadian Dollar has started to benefit from higher Oil prices, but structural headwinds and close linkage to the US Dollar limit outperformance.